E-mail Scott
Scott's Links
About the Author
Opinion Archives
Social Media:
Facebook
Twitter
Tumblr
Google Plus
YouTube
Flickr
PhotoBucket
Monthly Archives:

January 2010
February 2010
March 2010
April 2010
May 2010
June 2010
July 2010
August 2010
September 2010
October 2010
November 2010
December 2010
January 2011
February 2011
March 2011
April 2011
May 2011
June 2011
July 2011
August 2011
September 2011
October 2011
November 2011
December 2011
January 2012
February 2012
March 2012
April 2012
May 2012
June 2012
July 2012
August 2012
September 2012
October 2012
November 2012
December 2012
January 2013
February 2013
March 2013
April 2013
May 2013
June 2013
July 2013
August 2013
September 2013
October 2013
November 2013
December 2013
January 2014
February 2014
March 2014
April 2014
May 2014
June 2014
July 2014
August 2014
September 2014
October 2014
November 2014
December 2014
January 2015
February 2015
March 2015
April 2015
May 2015
June 2015
July 2015
August 2015
September 2015
October 2015
November 2015
December 2015
January 2016
February 2016
March 2016
April 2016
May 2016
June 2016
July 2016
August 2016
September 2016
October 2016
November 2016
December 2016
January 2017
February 2017
March 2017
April 2017

Powered by Blogger
Subscribe via RSS

Friday, August 12, 2016

Breaking down - or bypassing - "The Blue Wall"

Posted by Scott Tibbs at 4:00 AM (#)

Can Donald Trump win the Electoral College? It will not be easy. No matter who won the Republican nomination for President in 2016, the Republican candidate was going to have to overcome a significant obstacle to winning the Presidency: "The Blue Wall." These states (plus the nation's capital) represent 242 electoral votes: California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington, Washington D.C. and Wisconsin. Once a candidate hits 270, he (or she) is President.

It is not impossible to for Trump win, even assuming the "Blue Wall" remains intact. After all, George W. Bush was elected President twice without breaking the "Blue Wall." Instead, he went over the wall by winning other states. But if Clinton holds the wall and wins Florida, it is game over for Trump. Clinton is the President of these United States. (I hope you have a hurl bag handy!)

Also consider this: The Blue Wall is not invincible. New Jersey has an incumbent two-term Republican governor. Michigan also has a Republican governor in his second term. Both states have voted Democratic in Presidential elections since 1992 but Republicans can obviously win statewide in both states. Can Trump flip either to his side? If he flips both, he rips 30 "safe" electoral college votes away from Clinton.

It will also be interesting to see what happens in Wisconsin, which (like Michigan and New Jersey) has a two-term Republican governor. Prior to Obama, the margins for Democrats have been razor-thin. Clinton is not Obama, and she is not nearly as charismatic or likable as her husband. That is a state Trump could win.

It will not be easy to break the "Blue Wall," though, and elections for governor in off-year or midterm elections are very different from Presidential elections. A big reason for this is different voters turn out, and mid-term election demographics tend to favor Republicans. New Jersey has consistently given the Democrats big margins. It has been closer in Michigan, but Obama widened the margins there.

So, no, the Electoral College is far from a lock for Hillary Clinton - especially if Trump can peel off one or more "Blue Wall" states. If the wall holds, though, Trump's path to victory is very narrow. Keeping Clinton from picking up another 28 electoral votes beyond the "Blue Wall" will be difficult. If Obama's get-out-the-vote machine is in place for this election, that makes Trump's chances even smaller.

Both Clinton and Trump are very fortunate to be running against each other. They are two deeply flawed candidates who are disliked by wide swaths of their own parties - even by Republican and Democrat voters who plan on voting for their respective party's nominees. Hillary Clinton is favored to win because of the Electoral College math, but her victory is by no means assured.

(0 Comments)

Note: All posts must be approved by the blog owner before they are visible on the blog.

Comments:

Post a Comment


Below are the rules for commenting on ConservaTibbs.com.

  1. A reasonable level of civility is expected. While it is expected that controversial political and social issues may generate heated debate, there are common-sense limits of civility that will be enforced.

  2. This blog is a family-friendly site. Therefore no cursing, profanity, vulgarity, obscenity, etc. will be allowed. This is a zero-tolerance rule and will result in automatic deletion of the offending post.

  3. Anonymity has greatly coarsened discourse on the Internet, so pseudonyms are discouraged but not forbidden. That said, any direct criticism of a person by name cannot be done anonymously. If you criticize someone, you have to subject yourself to the same level of scrutiny or the comment will be deleted.

  4. Please keep your comments relevant to the topic of the post.

  5. All moderation decisions are final. I may post an explanation or I may not, depending on the situation. If you have a question or a concern about a moderation decision, e-mail me privately rather than posting in the comments.

Thank you for your cooperation.