President Trump's expanded coalition
President Trump would be viewed in a much more positive light if he just kept his mouth shut.
I was listening to a podcast from December 2020 where the host argued that Presidents should expand their coalition and President Trump failed to do that. But that is not accurate. President Trump's share of the popular vote expanded from 62.9 million in 2016 to 74.2 million in 2020. When he lost, he became a statistical anomaly: Presidents who get more votes usually win, while Presidents who get fewer votes (save for Barack Obama) generally lose.
The 2020 election was weird because pandemic voting procedures made it easier to vote, so turnout was very high. President Trump's policies in his first term - regulatory reform, tax cuts, protecting due process, appointing conservative justices, and defending religious freedom, among other things - were broadly popular and increased his vote totals by a lot.
The real show of strength, though, was the 2024 election. Vice President Harris got several million fewer votes than President Biden did in 2020, while President Trump increased his total votes again, to 77.3 million. In an election with significantly lower turnout than four years earlier, that is impressive. President Trump has expanded his base, and has brought in low-propensity voters to help him win. His weakness has always been his determination to "own the libs" and intentionally make people angry.
This is the biggest frustration with Trump, and was my biggest frustration when I voted for him in 2020. If he would just be more restrained and disciplined, he could have expanded his voting base while at the same time not stirring up so much hatred and intense opposition. Do not post memes designed to anger people, do not celebrate the death of political opponents, and do not attack a subordinate's marriage because of a political disagreement with her spouse, then celebrating the divorce you helped engineer. Just engage in solid policy and let others do the taunting and trolling you love so much.
There was always going to be intense opposition and hatred against President Trump from the most committed Leftists. But the story of Donald Trump is ultimately going to be one of missed opportunity. At a time when he could have been a much more uniting figure had he shown some restraint, discipline and professionalism, he could not resist "owning the libs." If Republicans lose the House (which was likely even before the gerrymandering wars of the last year) it will be because President Trump simply would not keep his mouth shut. Unfortunately for him, even if he suddenly became a statesman, the damage of eleven years of taunting and trolling is done and will hobble the last two years of his presidency. Sad!