I want to clarify something I said in my November 2 post: "Social media is real life." This is true. If you are nasty and hateful online, that is not some pretend thing. You are not playing a part, even if you are anonymous. That is your real personality. That reflects your real character.
But in another very real way, social media is NOT real life. By that, I mean in the aggregate. The vast majority of people are not posting on X (formerly Twitter) regularly. If you are looking at X to measure the overall political mood of the American people, you are looking at a very skewed sample. As a political institution, X has always punched way above its weight class. Facebook is a little better, because a much higher percentage of people post on Facebook. But the number of "keyboard warriors" posting about politics and policy is much smaller than the overall user base. If you are trying to measure where the American people are based on Facebook, you are still using a skewed sample.
Polls, while flawed, are generally a better source of data about where the American people are, provided the methodology is solid. People participating in rallies and protests is also better than social media, because (while some are paid agitators) you know those people are real humans and not bots. If a whole lot of people are at rallies, that can indicate a broader support base for specific issues and movements. But even that is not perfect, because while the people motivated to go protest are generally the most reliable voters, the people at rallies and protests are a small percentage of all people in a nation, state or local community. Ultimately, the only poll that really matters is the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November. All of the things mentioned previously (polls, protests, and social media) do influence what happens on Election Day, but Election Day is what matters more than anything else.
While social media trends and views can indicate there is a movement bubbling up, that can easily be an AstroTurf movement heavily augmented by bots rather than a true grassroots movement. If you are trying to estimate where the American people are, you cannot rely on social media to do it. You have to look at a number of sources, including people you interact with in daily life, while being careful you are not in too much of a bubble. In other words, you have to (you guessed it!) go outside and touch grass.
Social media is real life. Social media is NOT real life.
The number of "keyboard warriors" posting about politics and policy is much smaller than the overall population.
